Are Lower Mortgage Rates the Answer?

In the long run, it's falling home prices that will get the economy moving again.
By JUNE FLETCHER
from the Wall Street Journal

On Tuesday, the government announced an $800 billion plan to stimulate the economy by buying $600 billion worth of mortgage-backed assets and $200 billion in consumer-debt securities. The intent is to make it easier for consumers to buy cars, pay for college tuition and get credit cards. Mortgage interest rates fell about a half-percentage point on the news. (See "Fed Aid Sets Off a Rush to Refinance")

Will the effort finally get the economy moving again? Frankly, I doubt it.

Lower mortgage rates can help people buy housing, but only if they feel secure enough in their jobs, and confident enough in their financial future to take the plunge. Given that consumers are drowning in debt -- especially housing debt -- fearful of layoffs, and waiting for housing prices to hit bottom, it's unlikely that they'll react to this initiative with a spending spree.

Consumers don't react to debt like companies, though the government is behaving like they do. Giving companies better access to credit allows them to meet payrolls while they adjust their production and expenses in response to tighter economic condition. But families who can't pay their bills can't lay off a spouse and kids. For them, debt grows from burdensome to monstrous as interest charges accumulate. Eventually, the load becomes overwhelming.

Testifying before the Senate on July 28, Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren noted that the situation for the middle class has worsened during this decade. She explained that, adjusted for inflation, median household income fell $1,175 from 2000 to 2007, while expenses increased $4,655, pushed primarily by higher costs for mortgages, gas, health insurance and food, in that order. Families with children have borne an additional $3,180 in expenses for day care, after-school care and college tuition. To help cope with these rising costs, families turned to home equity lines of credit and refinancing -- effectively sucking the equity out of their homes -- as well as credit card debt. Nearly 44% of American households now carry a balance on their credit cards, she testified; to retire it, a family earning the median income of $48,201 would have to turn over every paycheck for nearly three months.

Foreclosure or bankruptcy will take a toll on a certain portion of these families, even though, as Ms. Warren points out in her book "The Two-Income Trap" (Basic Books: 2003), that's something most people desperately try to avoid. After studying 2,200 families that had filed for bankruptcy, she found that families that fail financially are most likely to be ones with children, who are struggling to buy and maintain homes in decent school districts, not flippers or status-seekers out to make a quick buck. For every family that officially declares bankruptcy, she writes, there are seven more whose debt loads suggest that they ought to file. But they don't, given the stigma that financial failure still holds in society.

Many Americans are so indebted that a job loss, illness or divorce inevitably pushes them over the financial precipice These days, I'm inundated with pleas for help from readers who were coping with their bills until they were blindsided by bad luck, like the Utah real estate agent who was hit with both diabetes and a falling home-sale market that destroyed her business, or the California man who got behind on mortgage payments after a heart attack, or the Massachusetts woman who lost a high-paying job and took on a lower-paying one that forces her to choose between going without food and heat and paying her mortgage. These readers aren't trying to game the system; they're trying to find ways to hold on to their homes, and failing that, their dignity.

While emergency relief measures and loan modifications may help the hardest cases, there's clearly not enough money in the federal budget to help everyone. Temporary stimulus measures like mortgage rate cuts and easier access to credit are limited, too, since they only work when people feel rich enough to buy something. Ultimately, it will take more permanent solutions, like the proposal recently unveiled by President-elect Barack Obama to boost job growth, to restore confidence enough to get the economy moving again.

In the meantime, expect some relief in the form of more affordable home prices, which continue to fall even with massive government intervention: In the third quarter, they declined a record 16.6% from a year earlier, according to the latest home price index by Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller. As painful as this deflation is to those who are forced to sell, in the long run, lower home prices will help family budgets to come into balance, and personal debt levels to become more manageable. That will help the economy far more than trying to entice tapped-out consumers to buy bigger houses and more stuff.

Write to June Fletcher at fletcher.june@gmail.com
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122770741433659553.html?mod=djempersonal

[The local real estate community tends to reject this common sense approach, saying that lower interest rates are indeed the answer to the problem. Some of these other Realtors need to get slapped back to reality... interest rates were too low for too long, and were combined with easy money and non-existent lending standards Those circumstances are exactly how we ended up in this mess. Here at the SCV Home Team we take a realist position. It doesn't make us that popular with some of our fellow associates, or with some of the sellers of real property. As we have said before, reality bites. We recognize reality, and go forward. So for the buyers in this market... opportunity awaits!! Home prices have fallen quite a bit and there are some terrific deals to be made! Give us a call at 661-290-3750 and let's be a buyer in this market!]