Timing the Market

Timing Your Purchase to the Market Cycle.

One problem with attempting to time your purchase to the business cycle is that even experts have problems accurately predicting the future economy. Even when they can, the real estate market does not necessarily move in tandem with the stock market or the economy as a whole.
Part of the reason is interest rates. When the economy is doing well, interest rates are generally higher. The result is that fewer people can afford houses. When the economy slows down, interest rates fall, the "affordability index" moves up and more people can afford houses.

As you can see, this cycle does not move "in sync" with the rest of the economy. It is also influenced by how many people have jobs, whether they are well-paying jobs, and consumer outlook for the future. All these factors make it difficult to know, in advance, whether the housing market is going to boom or bust. What makes most sense is the "buy and hold" strategy. Buy a home you expect to remain in for at least seven years or more.

Why You Should Not Wait to Purchase a Home.

Even if you could "time the market," that strategy would most benefit first-time buyers. You see, people who already have a home usually need to sell it in order to come up with the down payment for their next home. Even if they don't, they would have to carry the debt and obligations on two homes at the same time. This can create financial hardship, even when you rent out the previous home. There are maintenance costs, renters don't always make their payments on time, the rent may not cover the mortgage and other costs, and sometimes the property may be vacant.

So if you are a move-up buyer and want to purchase your next home during a depressed market, you generally have to sell your current home during that same depressed market. If you want to sell during a boom, then you also have to purchase during the same boom. It tends to equal out.

Finally, suppose you are a first-time buyer and wait think the end of a boom is near? If you guess wrong, are you going to wait...and wait...and wait...till the next depressed market? If so, you could miss out on loads of depreciation...and that is assuming you guess right about your market timing. In 1996, when the home market was struggling, who would have predicted what the next seven years would bring?

Are You Buying a House or a Home?

As you read and study about buying real estate, you will often find the words "house" and "home" used interchangeably. There is a huge difference between a house and a home.
A house can be a place to eat, sleep, park your car, and put all your "stuff" (including other family members). It is a material possession and an investment. A home is where you feel comfortable, warm, safe, and protected. A home is where you live.

A house is something you buy logically. A home is an emotional purchase. When buying real estate you have to balance your emotional wants and your logical needs because there will almost certainly be a time when the two conflict.

Example

For example, you may want a house with a view, but the payment is higher than you feel comfortable with on a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage. What do you do?

Purchase the house anyway and budget more carefully for the next few years? Buy the same house without the view and get it cheaper? Make a larger down payment by borrowing from your 401K or family members, so you get a lower payment? Get an adjustable rate mortgage with a smaller payment instead of a fixed rate loan? Or buy a smaller house and still get the view?

When viewing the house, most people look at it emotionally and envision it as a safe, happy, comfortable home. Later, when making the offer or filling out a mortgage application, your logic may begin to kick in, instead. That's when "buyer's remorse" may come up, but...that's a different article.

Balancing Act

The trick in buying real estate is to view all decisions with both a logical perspective and an emotional perspective. If a situation presents itself that requires a trade-off, decide on whether there is a huge conflict or a small one. Logic should win the big conflicts, but emotion should always be a factor, even winning the small ones.

You will find yourself owning a warm, happy, safe home – and an investment for the future at a price you are willing to pay.

One should consult with a qualified real estate planning professional like me prior to implementing any real estate planning strategies.